The power of metric curves
Finding hidden insights in your numbers
Time: 3.40 Minutes
Numbers alone tell stories, but curves reveal destinies.
Most founders obsess over current metrics like today's MRR, this month's churn, last quarter's CAC.
But the real magic happens when you plot these numbers over time and watch the curves emerge.
Jason Cohen's Max MRR metric brilliantly demonstrates this principle. While founders celebrated steady revenue growth, the Max MRR curve predicted the inevitable plateau months ahead. (read his article, I promise worth your time)
The curve doesn't lie, it reveals the mathematical truth hidden beneath surface-level optimism.
This pattern applies beyond revenue metrics. Plot your customer acquisition cost over time, and you'll spot channel saturation before your marketing spend explodes.
Track support ticket volume curves to predict team burnout. Visualize feature adoption rates to identify which investments actually drive engagement.
The key insight?
Metrics become actionable when you see their trajectory, not just their current state.
A 5% churn rate might seem acceptable until you plot it against cohorts and realize it's accelerating.
A flat revenue line might hide the alarming truth that your Max MRR ceiling is approaching fast.
Smart operators track leading indicators like Cohen's Max MRR alongside traditional lagging metrics.
Consider monitoring Customer Health Score trends, Product-Market Fit surveys over time, or Net Promoter Score trajectories.
These curves predict problems before they become crises.
The most successful companies don't just measure, they visualize, predict, and act on mathematical inevitabilities.
Your spreadsheet holds the future, you may just need to plot the curves to see it.
So keep drawing the right curves, and stay curious.
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